🤖 How Artificial General Intelligence Could Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations Visions for Potential AGI Futures

This RAND Corporation report explores how the development of Artificial GeneralIntelligence (AGI) could shape the future global order through eight illustrative geopolitical scenarios. The core analysis centers on 2️⃣ axes:

(1) the centralization of AGI development (centralized vs. decentralized), and

(2) its geopolitical outcome (empowering the U.S., U.S. adversaries, disempowering all, or halting AGI entirely). Scenarios range from U.S.-led multilateral dominance and PRC-driven authoritarian advantage, to widespread AGI proliferation resulting in chaos or even AI-led geopolitical control. Using assumption-based planning and 26 expert interviews, the report examines technological, strategic, and regulatory conditions likely to influence AGI’s trajectory.

Key insights stress that AGI’s impact will depend not just on capability, but on governance, safety protocols, and strategic policy choices made today. While some futures empower liberal democracies, others risk destabilization or catastrophic misuse. The study urges policymakers to proactively shape AGI governance to align with global security and human values before irreversible disruptions emerge.

Author

Ai Base Network (ABN), ABN ASIA was founded by people with deep roots in academia, with work experience in the US, Holland, Hungary, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Vietnam. ABN Asia is where academia and technology meet opportunity. With our cutting-edge solutions and competent software development services, we're helping businesses level up and take on the global scene. Our commitment: Faster. Better. More reliable. In most cases: Cheaper as well.

Feel free to reach out to us whenever you require IT services, digital consulting, off-the-shelf software solutions, or if you'd like to send us requests for proposals (RFPs). You can contact us at [email protected]. We're ready to assist you with all your technology needs.